Consolidation, operation, capitalization and digitization will define cables Year 2002, with prudent management, tough cost efficiencies and realistic business models dominating the industry's new year, concludes a cross-section of operators, vendors and analysts. This year will bring significant changes to the industry, experts say, with more consolidation, more business failures and elusive capital access. It will also prompt operators to establish a firm stance on lower operating costs and making technology pay. A move to open access is also in the mix.
VOD, subscription-VOD, interactive services and all things digital are expected to gain ground. In the meantime, a curious mix of mergers and acquisitions is expected--all with the common purpose of gaining a piece of the burgeoning triple play service market of video, voice and data, worth an estimated $42 billion in 2002.
"Overall, the industry will be solid in 2002," says Keith Kennebunk, analyst for the Strategis Group. "The big revenue change will be in VOD. That will be the buzz in 2002. It's a compelling business model. We'll see movement in mergers and acquisitions, too, with AT&T [Broadband] having a huge impact on the industry and its business models. Digital video and high-speed data will grow, as well."
It's chugging toward an expected 70 million residential multichannel video subscribers by 2003, and 27 million digital customers, for a penetration rate of 31 percent and a solid 12 percent to 5 percent overall annual growth …
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